The Biden administration’s plan to remake how Americans travel by forcing automakers to rapidly shift to predominantly electric vehicle sales would strike a major blow against global warming — but only if federal officials can successfully execute it.
There is a lot standing in their way.
The initiative is being launched at the same time the nation’s electricity grid — which would fuel all these new EVs — is wheezing, with destabilizing power outages and developers of wind and solar projects often stuck waiting years to connect to transmission lines. It is uncertain how car companies will secure all the minerals needed to build EV batteries, with federal plans to bring onshore supply chains facing major obstacles.
The durability of the Biden blueprint could also depend on Democrats retaining control of the White House in 2024 and defending the vehicle emissions rules against expected court challenges. Not since the Nixon administration allowed California to write its own tailpipe emissions standards — setting in motion a regulatory regime that would push automakers to build increasingly efficient cars — has there been such an aggressive push by Washington to reshape the American auto industry.
And of course there is the charging station conundrum: Can enough of them be built and kept functional to help car buyers overcome range anxiety?
All of these questions have many transportation experts hedging their bets. The regulatory push “could drive a more rapid transition to battery electric vehicles than we currently expect,” Matthias Heck, a vice president at Moody’s Investors Service, said in email. But he also cautioned: “risks for this carbon transition are high, if not very high, for the industry.”
Biden administration officials wave away such warnings, at a time that other countries are already rapidly electrifying. In China, EVs already account for nearly a third of new vehicle sales. Norway jumped over 79 percent in 2022, in a country where EVs accounted for less than 3 percent of total vehicle sales a decade earlier.
